This report explores two questions about jobs required for the net zero transition in heat, buildings, and transport:
- How many workers do available forecasts to 2030 or 2035 suggest are needed to deliver energy demand reduction?
- How robust is the available evidence?
These are answered through a rapid evidence review of available grey literature which forecasts the following specific jobs: heat pump installers; insulation fitters; retrofit coordinators; solar photovoltaic installers; electric vehicle charge point installers; electric vehicle mechanics and workers involved in active travel and public transport. The 42 forecasts analysed from 22 unique reports consistently suggest investment in energy demand reduction options has the potential to create between tens and hundreds of thousand jobs in key roles for energy demand reduction. However, the majority of forecasts do not use robust reporting in terms of evidence and methods used. Better forecasting is needed to plan for skills development, and provide the certainty needed for workers to (re-) train. To support this going forward:
- All energy demand reduction policies should have an associated skills need and deliverability assessment to ensure programmes maximise their potential.
- Clear UK-wide goals for certain technologies (e.g dates for gas boiler phase-out; electric vehicle sales and charge point installations) can provide the certainty needed for forecasting and encouraging workers to (re-)train.
- Regional-based forecasting should be used to take into account the local building stock, transport infrastructures and industrial contexts, support appropriate place-based skills provision.
- Forecasting must be underpinned by rigorous and transparent methods, and should consider the full remit of required jobs, including supervisory and managerial roles and planning work.
