Three priorities for Government in acting on the Climate Change Committee’s advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget

The Climate Change Committee published its advice to the Government on the Seventh Carbon Budget in February. The Energy Demand Research Centre (EDRC) welcomed the report and was pleased to support the Committee in developing its advice. EDRC researcher Christian Calvillo was seconded to the Committee to contribute to the analysis of the distributional impacts of the transition based on income, geography and protected characteristics (e.g. age, disability, ethnicity and sex), and researchers across the Centre also contributed expertise on energy demand measurement, reporting, and citizen engagement in decision-making. Now that the report is published, we believe that there are three priority areas for government to consider in responding: clear leadership and sustained commitment, energy demand monitoring and reporting and ensuring the benefits of the transition are shared more equitably.

The CCC’s CEO Emma Pinchbeck highlighted that people are keen to help meet net zero, yet are not clear on what it is that they are being asked to do. While emissions reductions are required at all levels of the economy and society, Government needs to show clear leadership to motivate and help people to act. For example, in changing to more sustainable diets; one of the recommendations of the CCC report. EDRC’s research with a Citizens Panel – a similar exercise to research that informed the CCC’s report – found that the majority of the members were supportive of a shift in the national diet, including reduced meat and dairy consumption. The panel were also in favour of locally and nationally sourced food, as well as for farmers to shift to more sustainable food production. However, converting this support into action requires leadership from government in terms of education, information, and public engagement. People need clarity on how their actions can make meaningful contributions to the emissions reduction targets and the right incentives for them to act.  

EDRC was also delighted to support the CCC in considering how to present and describe the UK’s energy demand. The old saying of you ‘need to monitor to manage’ still stands and the Seventh Carbon Budget is a good place to start in terms of the UK’s energy demand. While energy cannot be created or destroyed, demand for it can. Analysis by EDRC and its predecessor, the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS), demonstrated the need for energy demand reductions in the region of 40% to 50% by 2050 to meet future climate ambitions with further reductions also being possible to reduce the reliance on negative GHG emission technologies and de-risk the transition. Lees and Eyre discovered that between 1990 and 2019, 55% of the GHG emission reduction has become from energy demand reduction and considerably more is possible. The CCC report shows the need for the UK to monitor the UK’s future energy, an argument outlined by Betts-Davies et al. Their report, supported by the CCC analysis, shows that a failure, “to unlock higher levels of energy demand reduction, shown to be achievable through methods of avoiding demand through social changes to consumption…risks the achievement of net zero”. A clear energy reduction target to guide the UK towards net zero is vital. 

The CCC recommends that Government must act to remove barriers, support households and ensure that benefits of transitioning to net zero such as lower energy bills and new jobs are widely shared and do not worsen inequalities. Understanding how people interact with the transition and how they may be impacted is key to achieving this. The CCC’s approach in the report (and its supplementary research) to analysing distributional impacts, not only based on income or rural/urban context, but also looking at other protected characteristics (e.g., age, ethnicity, sex and disability) is welcome. 

Our EDRC work contributed to this analysis. The research highlights several factors that could prevent a just and equitable transition, many of which are non-economic barriers that are likely derived from intrinsic systematic inequities. For example, people with protected characteristics are more likely to live in flats and to rent. Heat pumps that require external units can be challenging to install in flats due to lack of suitable outdoor space.  Flats are also less likely to have off-street parking and/or a suitable way to install an EV charging point. Renting provides additional barriers as people who rent have less choice to make changes to their homes and there is little incentive for landlords to provide solutions that require capital investment. Also, people with protected characteristics, such as those from ethnic minorities, use more public transport and have less flexibility in their travel needs. These travel trends can mean higher impacts from any cost increases to or changes in their transport.  

Government must act on the Committee’s advice to ensure the benefits of net zero are widely and more equitably shared. This means going beyond financial incentives and designing policy responses that are regionally sensitive, targeted to particular needs and that integrate across different areas including health, welfare, work, transport and energy. Tackling these challenges in a more holistic way has the potential to bring significant cost savings and co-benefits. Developing better understanding of non-economic barriers, and the differences and nuances for groups with protected characteristics, will be key in it helping secure public support for net zero, and ensuring a more just and equitable transition for all. 

We look forward to feeding into ongoing conversations around the setting of the Seventh Carbon Budget, and in its response, we hope that UK Government can act to sustain and build momentum around a net zero agenda that is so critically important to the UK’s future prosperity.