This research investigates the labour market impacts and justice outcomes of green job transitions required for net zero energy demand solutions. Using dynamic economy-wide modelling, it examines how different energy demand reduction pathways affect employment quality, earnings, and skills requirements across various sectors and regions. The project specifically focuses on understanding distributional impacts across household income groups and evaluating the equity implications of green job creation. Through dynamic scenario analysis, it aims to identify potential barriers and opportunities in labour market transitions, informing policy approaches that can deliver just and inclusive employment outcomes while meeting net zero objectives.
Understanding the labour justice outcomes of green job transitions
Photo by ThisisEngineering on Unsplash
Themes
Project overview
Key objectives
- Analyse employment quality and earnings outcomes of specific energy demand solutions
- Evaluate distributional impacts of green job transitions across different household income groups
- Develop refined CGE modelling frameworks focused on labour market dynamics
- Assess regional and national variations in green jobs creation and skills requirements
- Identify policy approaches to ensure equitable labour market outcomes in net zero transitions
Methods and approaches
The UKENVI multi-sector computable general equilibrium, CGE, model of the UK economy is used as a scenario simulation framework to capture interactions between all the UK production sectors and types of final consumers in investigating economy-wide impacts. The model is currently calibrated on a 2018 social accounting matrix (SAM) featured with a more detailed breakdown of the two lowest income household quintiles, to identify and target households living in fuel poverty.
Next Steps/Future Work
As a first step to this project, we are planning on exploring the implications of bridging the energy efficiency gap that is observed in Scottish and UK industries compared to their international counterparts. Addressing this gap could affect the wider economy and bring forward important considerations regarding the labour market.
