Spatial analysis of low carbon retrofit impacts and grid resilience under housing electrification in UK urban areas

Homes and buildings are central to the UK’s net-zero challenge, producing around 20% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Most households still rely on natural gas, but the rapid adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles is pushing electricity demand higher. This creates new challenges for urban electricity networks, where substations may face overload and resilience risks. 

This project focuses on Manchester city centre, chosen for its density and diverse building stock. It explores how housing retrofits, electrification, and climate change shape future energy demand, and how these changes interact with the local electricity grid. By linking energy use with grid capacity, the project identifies where upgrades are most urgent to ensure a fair and reliable transition.

• Assess current and future energy demand in urban housing. 

• Understand the combined impacts of retrofit, electrification, and climate change. 

• Identify risks to grid resilience, particularly in dense city areas. 

• Provide clear evidence to support planning, investment, and fair access to low-carbon energy.

The project takes a broad spatial perspective, looking at how housing improvements, electrification, and climate change shape energy demand in a city context. It links these changing demand patterns with the capacity of local electricity networks to explore where risks and resilience challenges may arise. The work brings together insights from buildings, infrastructure, and future climate conditions to provide a balanced view of the pressures facing urban grids. While the focus is on Manchester, the approach offers lessons that can be applied more widely to support the UK’s transition to low-carbon energy.