Climate change is transforming UK summers, with heatwaves becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged. In 2022, the UK recorded its first 40°C day, an event likely to become normal by 2040. Hotter summers are expected to drive a major increase in home air conditioning (AC), from 1 million units today to 18 million by 2050. Such growth risks straining energy systems, increasing emissions and undermining climate targets. Yet in the UK, we know very little about who is already installing AC and why. This project investigates the social, cultural and technical drivers of AC adoption. By understanding the pathways driving AC installations, the project will support better energy planning and ensure a fair, clean and resilient future energy system for all.
Residential Air-conditioning Demand Futures (RADFutures)
Picture by Studio Romantic on Adobe Stock
Themes
Project overview
Key objectives
The project aims to achieve the following objectives:
- Understand the socio-technical characteristics of UK households with AC and the pathways driving AC adoption.
- Communicate the risk of AC growth for energy demand, people, the energy system and climate.
Methods/Approaches
The project is conducting the first socio-technical study of air conditioning in UK homes providing data to understand current and future domestic cooling demand.
The English Housing Survey dataset is being reanalysed to learn more about the types of homes and households that already have AC.
In-depth qualitative interviews are being undertaken with 20 UK households who use AC to understand what led them to install it, how often they use it, and what it means for their daily lives.
Next steps/Future work
By late spring 2026, the project will:
- Understand how and why people are installing AC in UK homes today, to help EDRC find practical, evidence-based ways to reduce energy demand in the future.
- Prepare a final report and policy brief for EDRC and wider stakeholders.
- Present key findings at a workshop for policymakers, energy companies, network operators and researchers.
- Publish a mass media communication to raise national awareness of the risks of growing AC use in homes.
