Climate change is increasingly reshaping the UK’s climate and built environment. By 2040, global warming is projected to reach or exceed 1.5°C (IPCC, 2022), and extreme and prolonged periods of heat are expected to become normal events during UK summers (Brimicombe et al., 2021). As summer temperatures and heatwaves intensify, energy demand for cooling in the UK housing sector is expected to rise dramatically, particularly through the growing use of air conditioning (AC). The National Energy System Operator (NESO) estimates that air conditioning is currently used in approximately 3% of UK homes, accounting for around 0.3 TWh of electricity demand. By 2050, household adoption is projected to increase to between 10% and 40%, depending on the future energy pathway modelled, resulting in electricity demand rising to between 1.1 and 4.3 TWh (NESO, 2025). Furthermore, based on BSRIA sales data from 2013 to 2020, it was estimated that 83,000 additional homes were being equipped with AC each year (BEIS, 2021). More recent research suggests that these estimates may prove conservative, as the UK could experience a 30% relative increase in cooling degree days if global warming reaches 2°C (Miranda et al., 2023).
Despite these projections, estimates of future AC uptake in UK homes remain highly uncertain. NESO (2025) state that the future electricity demand for AC in homes “still faces uncertainty, with their adoption and usage dependent on climate change and associated extreme heat events, as well as upfront costs for consumers”. Existing models typically assume that AC installation becomes inevitable as soon as people experience thermal discomfort and can afford the technology (e.g. Isaac and Van Vuuren, 2009; Sivak, 2009). However, what these modelling approaches often fail to consider are the important differences in the specific and dynamic socio-technical contexts, including history, culture, innovation, and housing stock condition, through which the need for cooling technologies is established. This is particularly significant in temperate climates, such as the UK, where the historical focus has been on keeping homes warm in winter rather than cool in summer. The reasons behind the current and ongoing adoption of AC in UK homes, and in temperate climates more generally (Hitchings, 2011), have not been researched or explained in any substantial detail.
Cooling demand is a relatively new phenomenon for temperate countries like the UK. However, growth in cooling on the scale currently predicted could present a hugely problematic challenge for the delivery of a resilient, affordable, clean, and equitable future UK energy system. Cooling energy demand and the growing uptake of AC have been described as “one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate” (IEA, 2018). This is reflected in the very limited research currently available on AC adoption and use in UK homes. To date, only a single study examining AC use in 13 UK homes over a four-week period during summer 2004 has been identified in the literature (Pathan et al., 2008). Consequently, there remains a significant gap in understanding not only the extent of AC adoption and use in UK households, but also the social, cultural, economic, and environmental factors driving households to adopt AC.
