Rethink energy system models to support interdisciplinary and inclusive just transition debates

Diana Süsser, Connor McGookin, Will McDowall, Francesco Lombardi, Lukas Braunreiter and Stefan Bouzarovski

To achieve the recommendation stated in the chapter title, we propose the following:

• Policymakers should demand more open and inclusive energy modelling processes to ensure that stakeholders can meaningfully contribute to the process.
• Policymakers should recognise the critical role of the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) in complementing energy modelling to receive a more holistic viewpoint on just pathways to climate neutrality. Both Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) and SSH research is needed to transform our energy system to a just, climate-neutral future.
• Policymakers should establish cross- and transdisciplinary debates for incorporating more diverse voices into energy modelling.

The goal of a just transition to climate neutrality is high on the political agenda. Just transition refers to “a fair and equitable process of transition to a post-carbon society” (McCauley & Heffron, 2018, p. 2). The concept has been recognised in the IPCC’s latest mitigation assessment and the European Green Deal. The European Union has set stringent net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets, while also declaring it will leave no person and no place behind.

The dominant tools for understanding the energy transition are energy system models (Süsser et al., 2021a). The most prominent whole system approaches—Energy System Optimisation Models (ESOMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)—are important policy tools. These provide a representation of current and future emissions across different scales; pan-EU, national, and regions or cities. While they have great value in providing techno-economic least-cost pathways for decarbonisation, we argue that their ability to reflect the real-world energy transition is limited. Two critical gaps we see are that, firstly, the models are not designed to reflect important aspects of fairness and inclusion, and secondly, they tend to assume very little or no changes to social and political institutions (e.g. future energy demand is generally based on projecting continuous GDP growth).

Consequently, current modelling practices are often incompatible with the goal of a just transition. The models, optimising for least cost, are unlikely to produce equitable outcomes, and modelling teams have tended not to focus on equity or just transition issues (Sonja & Harald, 2018). Recently, there has been some interest in ways to incorporate broader societal considerations into modelling tools (Krumm et al., 2022; Lonergan et al., 2023). This includes using existing models to scrutinise narratives, intensifying collaboration across scholars, or structurally modifying and building new models to integrate Social Science research (Holtz et al., 2015; Trutnevyte et al., 2019). Nevertheless, more effort is needed to increase inclusive participation in modelling processes and to integrate aspects of fairness or justice in energy modelling (Lonergan et al., 2023; McGookin et al., 2021).

The arguments made in this chapter stem from the context of three EU-funded research projects, SENTINEL, SEEDS and JustWind4All, as well as on an online discussion between the author team (September 2023) (McGookin et al., 2024a), a joint workshop with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) on stakeholder-driven scenario development for just transitions to climate neutrality (November 2023) (Süsser, 2024; Süsser & Goussous, 2024), and feedback from a presentation at the Behave 2023 conference (November 2023). At the workshops and discussions, both Social Scientists and Computer Engineers were present, who work in research, practice, and policy, including governmental authorities, international development agencies and the energy industry. We discussed current gaps in modelling practices and solutions to improve tools and modelling processes. By building on these combined insights, we argue that integrated and complementary energy modelling and Social Sciences research are crucial to enable equitable pathways to climate neutrality. Policy would benefit from insights based not only on modelled techno-economic pathways, but also on the results of debates with the stakeholders¹ and citizens. To achieve just transitions, models must be complemented with Social Science research, including Policy Research, Psychology and Human Geography, to open up debates and enable better informed decision-making.