This submission provides expert evidence on the surface transport elements of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget. It examines the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) assumptions for surface transport emissions, highlighting the persistent gap between projected and actual progress on electrification, vehicle fleet turnover, and travel demand reduction. The response reviews the Government’s Carbon Budget Growth Delivery Plan, noting that current policies fall short of the CCC’s pathway, particularly in the adoption of electric vehicles and in delivering the scale of mode shift required.
The evidence assesses why the transport sector continues to lag behind expectations, evaluates the realism of assumptions around behaviour change, bus and active travel uptake, and explores options for accelerating emissions reductions including reducing the need to travel, rethinking demand trends, and improving transparency around modelling and baselines. It concludes by stressing the critical role of surface transport in meeting carbon budgets and the need for more credible, ambitious delivery plans.
This evidence was widely used to inform the Environmental Audit Committee’s report on the Seventh Carbon Budget.
